Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
